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Rapid evolution of quantitative traits: theoretical perspectives.

Michael Kopp1, Sebastian Matuszewski2

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Climate change drives rapid evolution in populations, offering hope for species survival through evolutionary rescue. However, adaptation rates are limited, and survival depends on absolute fitness, not just relative.

Keywords:
Adaptationclimate changehabitat degradationnatural selection and contemporary evolutionphenotypic plasticitypopulation dynamicspopulation geneticsquantitative genetics

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Quantitative genetics
  • Climate change adaptation

Background:

  • Phenotypic and genetic changes are observed in natural populations facing climate change.
  • Evolutionary rescue is a potential mechanism for species to avoid extinction.
  • Theoretical models are crucial for understanding rapid evolution under environmental change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review quantitative-genetic models of rapid evolution in response to climate change.
  • To explore the potential for adaptation in natural populations facing shifting environments.
  • To analyze factors influencing the rate of adaptation and population survival.

Main Methods:

  • Review of theoretical quantitative-genetic models.
  • Analysis of models with selection for a moving phenotypic optimum.
  • Examination of factors like phenotypic plasticity, genetic correlations, and community interactions.

Main Results:

  • The rate of adaptation does not directly correlate with population survival; absolute fitness is key.
  • Sustainable rates of genetically based change are estimated to be around 0.1 haldanes per generation.
  • Phenotypic plasticity and heritable variation in plasticity can enhance adaptation speed.
  • Multivariate selection and genetic correlations may not always constrain adaptation.
  • Interspecific competition significantly influences rapid evolution in multispecies communities.

Conclusions:

  • Rapid evolution can facilitate adaptation to climate change, but survival is not guaranteed.
  • Phenotypic plasticity plays a vital role in population persistence.
  • Understanding genetic architecture and community dynamics is essential for predicting evolutionary rescue.
  • Further research into complex ecological interactions is needed to fully grasp adaptive potential.