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Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes
M A Denolle1, E M Dunham, G A Prieto
1Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, 397 Panama Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 25, 2014
Summary
We present a new virtual earthquake method to predict seismic wave amplification in sedimentary basins. This approach validates earthquake simulations and improves ground motion predictions for future seismic events.
Area of Science:
- Earthquake seismology
- Geophysics
- Computational seismology
Background:
- Sedimentary basins amplify seismic waves, increasing earthquake damage.
- Current earthquake simulations lack validation for future events.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a novel method for ground motion prediction using the ambient seismic field.
- To validate earthquake simulations by comparing them with a new approach.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing the ambient seismic field for ground motion prediction.
- Applying the virtual earthquake approach to magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault.
- Comparing predictions with traditional seismic wave propagation simulations.
Main Results:
- Both methods reveal significant seismic wave amplification and source-structure coupling.
- Substantial differences in predicted shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin were observed.
- The virtual earthquake approach offers a new way to predict long-period strong ground motion.
Conclusions:
- The virtual earthquake approach provides a viable method for validating earthquake simulations.
- This new technique enhances the prediction of ground motion, particularly long-period waves.
- Understanding basin effects is crucial for accurate earthquake hazard assessment.
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