US population aging and demand for inpatient services.

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Management
• Demography
• Public Health

Background:

• US inpatient capacity has declined since the 1970s.
• The population aged 65 and over is projected to more than double by 2050.
• Current national inpatient capacity requirements for an aging population are not quantified.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the impact of population aging on future US hospital admissions.
• To project the necessary increase in inpatient capacity by 2050.
• To estimate changes in aggregate inpatient days due to demographic shifts.

Main Methods:

• Utilized 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample and Census data.
• Estimated age-specific hospitalization rates.
• Applied 2011 rates to projected 2050 population demographics.

Main Results:

• US population projected to increase by 41% by 2050.
• Annual hospitalizations expected to rise by 67% due to aging.
• Required inpatient capacity projected to increase by 72% (admissions and length of stay).

Conclusions:

• Population aging will drive a substantial increase in demand for inpatient hospital services.
• Inpatient capacity must grow significantly beyond general population growth to meet future needs.
• Future healthcare planning must account for demographic changes to ensure adequate capacity.