Trend and fluctuations: analysis and design of population dynamics measurements in replicate ecosystems

The dynamical evolution of complex systems is often intrinsically stochastic and subject to external random forces. In order to study the resulting variability in dynamics, it is essential to make measurements on replicate systems and to separate arbitrary variation of the average dynamics of these replicates from fluctuations around the average dynamics. Here we do so for population time-series data from replicate ecosystems sharing a common average dynamics or common trend. We explain how model parameters, including the effective interactions between species and dynamical noise, can be estimated from the data and how replication reduces errors in these estimates. For this, it is essential that the model can fit a variety of average dynamics. We then show how one can judge the quality of a model, compare alternate models, and determine which combinations of parameters are poorly determined by the data. In addition we show how replicate population dynamics experiments could be designed to optimize the acquired information of interest about the systems. Our approach is illustrated on a set of time series gathered from replicate microbial closed ecosystems.