Universal size effects for populations in group-outcome decision-making problems.

Area of Science:

• Political Science
• Sociology
• Complex Systems

Background:

• Elections present complex decision-making challenges studied across disciplines.
• Group decision-making, particularly in self-impacting scenarios, remains an area of interest.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate universal scaling patterns in election participation and representation.
• To explore the hierarchical structure of constituencies and its relation to decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of participation in local elections.
• Examination of democratic representative numbers across scales.
• Development of a phenomenological model for vote participation.

Main Results:

• Observed a universal scaling law with constituency size for both participation and representation.
• Interpreted results as evidence of a hierarchical constituency structure (N(δ) subgroups, δ≈1/3).
• Developed a model quantitatively reproducing observed abstention patterns.

Conclusions:

• Constituencies exhibit a predictable hierarchical organization influencing participation.
• Abstention can be modeled based on an agent's perceived connection to the constituency.
• Findings offer insights into the fundamental dynamics of collective decision-making in elections.