Automatic comparison and evaluation of impressions left by a firearm on fired cartridge cases

Recent years have been characterized by a series of publications in the field of firearms investigation questioning the reliability and objectivity of such examination. This research investigates new solutions to decrease the subjective component affecting the evaluation that follows the comparison of impressions left by a firearm on the surface of spent cartridge cases. An automatic comparison system based on 3D measurements has been developed and coupled to a bivariate evaluative model allowing assigning likelihood ratios. Based on a dataset of 79 pistols (all SIG Sauer 9 mm Luger caliber), the system shows a very high discriminating power and the LRs that it provides are very indicative of the true state under both the prosecution and the defense propositions. For example, likelihood ratios exceeding a billion are predominantly obtained when impressions originating from the same source are compared. The system is also characterized by relatively low rates (≤ 1%) of misleading evidence depending on the firearm considered.