Predictability of pharmaceutical spending in primary health services using Clinical Risk Groups

Risk adjustment instruments applied to existing electronic health records and administrative datasets may contribute to monitoring the correct prescribing of medicines.

We aim to test the suitability of the model based on the CRG system and obtain specific adjusted weights for determined health states through a predictive model of pharmaceutical expenditure in primary health care.

A database of 261,054 population in one health district of an Eastern region of Spain was used. The predictive power of two models was compared. The first model (ATC-model) used nine dummy variables: sex and 8 groups from 1 to 8 or more chronic conditions while in the second model (CRG-model) we include sex and 8 dummy variables for health core statuses 2-9.

The two models achieved similar levels of explanation. However, the CRG system offers higher clinical significance and higher operational utility in a real context, as it offers richer and more updated information on patients.

The potential of the CRG model developed compared to ATC codes lies in its capacity to stratify the population according to specific chronic conditions of the patients, allowing us to know the degree of severity of a patient or group of patients, predict their pharmaceutical cost and establish specific programmes for their treatment.