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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Sweden once led the world in life expectancy for both men and women.
  • Despite high and increasing life expectancy, Sweden is falling behind other leading nations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze life expectancy trends in Sweden from 1970-2008.
  • To compare Sweden's life expectancy with Japan and France.
  • To determine the impact of age, causes of death, and smoking on these differences.

Main Methods:

  • Life expectancy analysis for men and women (1970-2008).
  • Decomposition method to assess contributions of age, causes of death, and smoking.
  • First study to use this method for smoking-related mortality differences.

Main Results:

  • Sweden has low mortality at younger ages but higher mortality above 65 compared to Japan and France.
  • Cardiovascular disease trends are the primary driver of these differences, with cancer also playing a role for women.
  • Smoking-attributable mortality is lower in Swedish men than in French and Japanese men.

Conclusions:

  • Sweden's relative decline in life expectancy is due to slower improvements in mortality at older ages, particularly from cardiovascular diseases.
  • Smoking trends may partially explain differences in women's life expectancy, but no single factor fully accounts for Sweden's position.
  • Further research is needed to fully understand the complex factors influencing Sweden's life expectancy trends.