Spatial modeling of the schistosomiasis mansoni in Minas Gerais State, Brazil using spatial regression

Schistosomiasis is a transmissible parasitic disease caused by the etiologic agent Schistosoma mansoni, whose intermediate hosts are snails of the genus Biomphalaria. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Minas Gerais State in Brazil using spatial disease information derived from the state transportation network of roads and rivers. The spatial information was incorporated in two ways: by introducing new variables that carry spatial neighborhood information and by using spatial regression models. Climate, socioeconomic and environmental variables were also used as co-variables to build models and use them to estimate a risk map for the whole state of Minas Gerais. The results show that the models constructed from the spatial regression produced a better fit, providing smaller root mean square error (RMSE) values. When no spatial information was used, the RMSE for the whole state of Minas Gerais reached 9.5%; with spatial regression, the RMSE reaches 8.8% (when the new variables are added to the model) and 8.5% (with the use of spatial regression). Variables representing vegetation, temperature, precipitation, topography, sanitation and human development indexes were important in explaining the spread of disease and identified certain conditions that are favorable for disease development. The use of spatial regression for the network of roads and rivers produced meaningful results for health management procedures and directing activities, enabling better detection of disease risk areas.