Time trends of ovarian cancer incidence in China

The aim of this study was to examine the trend of ovary cancer incidence from 1999 to 2010 in China and predict the burden up to 2020. Crude incidence, age specific incidence and age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated. Joinpoint regression was performed to obtain estimated annual percentages and Bayesian age-period- cohort modeling was used to predict the incidence rate until the year 2020. In China, the crude rate of ovary cancer was 7.91/100,000 and the age-adjusted rate was 5.35/100,000 overall during period 1999-2010. The rates in urban regions were higher than in rural regions. A significant rising trend during 1999-2006 was followed by a drop during 2006-2010 in age-adjusted rates for urban females. In contrast, constant rise was observed in rural women. The decrease in ovary cancer of urban areas tended to be restricted to women aged 50 years and younger. In contrast, increases of ovary cancer in rural areas appeared in virtually all age groups. Although the age-adjusted incidence rate for ovary cancer was predicted to be reduced after year 2011, the crude rate was likely to be relative stable up to 2020. The burden of ovary cancer in China will continue to be relative stable due to the aging population.