Using cognitive status to predict crash risk: blazing new trails?

Area of Science:

• Neuroscience
• Gerontology
• Transportation Safety

Background:

• A computer-based version of the Trail-Making Test (TMT), a neuropsychological assessment, was administered to nearly 700 older drivers (70+ years).
• The study utilized a volunteer sample representative of Maryland's older driver population in terms of age and prior driving safety.
• Participants received compensation and assurances that test results would not impact their license status.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the effectiveness of a computer-based Trail-Making Test (TMT) in predicting crash risk among older drivers.
• To introduce and assess a novel outcome measure, the error-compensated completion time, for the TMT.
• To determine if this new measure offers improved predictive accuracy compared to traditional completion time.

Main Methods:

• The study involved administering the TMT to approximately 700 drivers aged 70 and older.
• A new metric, error-compensated completion time, was developed to account for both correct and incorrect responses.
• Statistical analyses examined the relationship between TMT scores and subsequent crash experience.

Main Results:

• Trail-Making Test Part B, using the error-compensated completion time, emerged as a reliable predictor of crash risk.
• This new measure demonstrated a modest increase in specificity compared to the simple time-to-completion metric.
• The error-compensated completion time proved to be a more significant predictor of future driving safety.

Conclusions:

• The error-compensated completion time for TMT Part B offers improved specificity in predicting crash risk for older drivers.
• This enhanced TMT measure has potential advantages for autonomous administration in large-scale settings.
• The findings suggest utility for this refined TMT in contexts like healthcare and driver licensing agencies.