Species ages in neutral biodiversity models

Area of Science:

• Ecological theory
• Biodiversity science
• Biogeography

Background:

• Biogeography investigates biodiversity drivers across space and time.
• Neutral theory in biogeography has been criticized for predicting unrealistically long species ages.
• Accurate species age estimation is crucial for improving biodiversity theories.

Purpose of the Study:

• To derive and apply new analytical expressions for species ages in neutral biodiversity communities.
• To compare these new expressions with previous estimates, particularly those from neutral molecular evolution.
• To analyze species ages and persistence times within a spatially implicit metacommunity model.

Main Methods:

• Developed analytical expressions for species ages in both zero-sum and non-zero-sum neutral biodiversity communities.
• Analyzed a spatially implicit metacommunity model.
• Calculated species persistence times and lifetimes using derived expressions.
• Estimated species ages for forest trees using the new model.

Main Results:

• New analytical expressions for species ages are presented, deemed more appropriate for biodiversity than molecular evolution analogues.
• Species ages derived from the new model for forest trees are approximately one order of magnitude shorter than previous predictions.
• Despite reductions, the estimated species ages remain unrealistically long under the neutral model.

Conclusions:

• The study provides refined analytical tools for estimating species ages in neutral biodiversity models.
• The findings suggest that while neutral theory's species age predictions are improved, they may still require revision.
• Further exploration of alternative biogeographical models is warranted to resolve the issue of long species ages.