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Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application.
M C Fabrizio1, N J Schweigmann2, N J Bartoloni1
1Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av San Martín 4453, C1417DSE, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Parasitology
|February 19, 2014
Summary
Urban Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is spreading globally. Mathematical modeling reveals the chronic indeterminate stage significantly drives new infections in urban settings.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Chagas disease transmission (Trypanosoma cruzi) is shifting from rural to urban areas due to human migration.
- Urban Chagas represents an emerging global health concern in cities across the Americas, Europe, Australia, and Japan.
- Understanding the epidemiology of urban Chagas is crucial for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a mathematical model for urban Chagas disease dynamics.
- To investigate the impact of inter-human transmission routes and clinical stages on disease spread.
- To estimate key epidemiological parameters, including the basic reproduction number (R0).
Main Methods:
- A mathematical model was formulated incorporating three clinical stages of Chagas disease and inter-human transmission.
- The next-generation matrix method was employed to analyze the model's complexities.
- Expressions were derived to quantify new infections per infected individual by transmission route and disease stage.
Main Results:
- Individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage were estimated to generate 94% of new infections in Buenos Aires.
- Without considering migration, the basic reproduction number (R0) was 0.079, indicating slow infection disappearance.
- Inclusion of migration in the model led to a stabilization of infected individuals across all disease stages.
Conclusions:
- The chronic indeterminate stage is the primary driver of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in urban settings.
- Migration plays a significant role in sustaining urban Chagas disease prevalence.
- The derived mathematical expressions can estimate infection burdens in populations with inter-human transmission.
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