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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Proposal for a new risk stratification classification for meningioma based on patient age, WHO tumor grade, size,
Patrícia Henriques Domingues1, Pablo Sousa, Álvaro Otero
1Center for Neurosciences and Cell Biology, and Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal (P.H.D., C.d.O., M.C.L.); Center for Cancer Research (CIC-IBMCC; CSIC/USAL) and Department of Medicine, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain (P.H.D., A.O*., M.D.T.); Neurosurgery Service, University Hospital of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain (P.S., A.O., J.M.G., L.R.); Research Unity and IECSCYL, University Hospital of Salamanca IBSAL, Salamanca, Spain (M.D.T.).
Background:
Tumor recurrence remains the major clinical complication of meningiomas, the majority of recurrences occurring among WHO grade I/benign tumors. In the present study, we propose a new scoring system for the prognostic stratification of meningioma patients based on analysis of a large series of meningiomas followed for a median of >5 years.
Methods:
Tumor cytogenetics were systematically investigated by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization in 302 meningioma samples, and the proposed classification was further validated in an independent series of cases (n = 132) analyzed by high-density (500K) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays.
Results:
Overall, we found an adverse impact on patient relapse-free survival (RFS) for males, presence of brain edema, younger patients (<55 years), tumor size >50 mm, tumor localization at intraventricular and anterior cranial base areas, WHO grade II/III meningiomas, and complex karyotypes; the latter 5 variables showed an independent predictive value in multivariate analysis. Based on these parameters, a prognostic score was established for each individual case, and patients were stratified into 4 risk categories with significantly different (P < .001) outcomes. These included a good prognosis group, consisting of approximately 20% of cases, that showed a RFS of 100% ± 0% at 10 years and a very poor-prognosis group with a RFS rate of 0% ± 0% at 10 years. The prognostic impact of the scoring system proposed here was also retained when WHO grade I cases were considered separately (P < .001).
Conclusions:
Based on this risk-stratification classification, different strategies may be adopted for follow-up, and eventually also for treatment, of meningioma patients at different risks for relapse.
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