Comparison of multi-stage dose-response mixture models, with applications

This article concerns the analysis of a stochastic model that we propose for the population that generates a response (response measure) to the dose with the multi-stage model. The parameter uncertainty is dealt with via random dose and random size of the population at risk. The response measure is modeled by a random sum of mixed Bernoulli random variables with arbitrary distribution for the mixing parameters. Some extensions of the model are defined by functionals of the infection probability, fulfilling some convexity properties. We analyze the response by stochastic comparisons under different stochastic relations on the random dosages and the random sizes of the population at risk; or on the random infection rates. We provide stochastic exact bounds of the mixture model for the response, using inequalities and the positive quadrant dependence. Numerical bounds of the response by a dose having a scalar value or having an exponential or uniform distributions are obtained. Some conclusions are derived: the lower estimation of the response measure in the increasing convex order sense by replacing the dosages by their means; effects of the variation of the dose on the magnitude of the probability distribution of the response; effects of parameter correlation on the degree of variability of the response to any random dose; the low-dose region assessment; and also, the classical multi-stage model is compared versus the mixture model featuring independence and versus that with positive quadrant dependence.