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Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences.

Narayanan Kandasamy1, Ben Hardy, Lionel Page

  • 1Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge and National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 0QQ, United Kingdom.

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Elevated stress hormone cortisol levels make individuals more risk-averse, suggesting risk preferences dynamically adjust to circumstances like financial uncertainty. This stress response may influence market stability.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral neuroscience
  • Financial economics
  • Decision science

Background:

  • Risk-taking is fundamental to human behavior and extensively studied in behavioral sciences.
  • Existing models often assume stable financial risk preferences, but empirical evidence for this is debated.
  • Previous research linked increased market volatility to elevated cortisol levels in traders.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether experimentally elevated cortisol levels alter human risk preferences.
  • To determine if cortisol influences the utility and probability weighting functions governing risk-taking behavior.
  • To explore potential sex differences in cortisol-induced shifts in risk perception.

Main Methods:

  • A double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over study design was employed.
  • Participants' cortisol levels were elevated over 8 days to mimic levels observed in traders during high volatility.
  • Risk-taking behavior was assessed by analyzing utility and probability weighting functions.

Main Results:

  • Elevated cortisol levels significantly increased risk aversion in participants.
  • Cortisol administration led to more distorted probability weighting, particularly in men compared to women.
  • These findings indicate that risk preferences are not stable traits but are dynamically influenced by physiological states.

Conclusions:

  • The stress response, via cortisol, actively calibrates risk-taking behavior to environmental conditions, such as prolonged uncertainty.
  • Physiology-induced fluctuations in risk preferences may represent an underappreciated factor contributing to financial market instability.
  • Risk preferences are dynamic and responsive to stress, challenging traditional economic models of stable preferences.