Global species richness estimates have not converged
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Updated: May 2, 2026

A Concoction Pipeline for Generating Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) Among Riparian and Aquatic Beetles
Published on: July 11, 2025
M Julian Caley1, Rebecca Fisher1, Kerrie Mengersen2
1Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville MC, Queensland, Australia.
Abstract:
We demonstrate that after more than six decades, estimates of global species richness have failed to converge, remain highly uncertain, and in many cases, are logically inconsistent. Convergence in these estimates could be accelerated by adaptive learning methods where the estimation of uncertainty is prioritised and used to guide future research.
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