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Seasonality updated in 28 European/Mediterranean countries: A continuing enigma.
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Summary
Most European countries now show peak conceptions in the last quarter of the year. This shift in birth seasonality may be linked to factors like sexual activity or atmospheric quality, requiring further investigation.
Area of Science:
- Reproductive Health
- Environmental Epidemiology
- Demography
Background:
- Birth seasonality patterns exhibit significant geographical and temporal variations.
- Understanding these patterns is crucial for public health and demographic studies.
- Previous research indicated diverse seasonality across Europe, necessitating updated analyses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To update birth seasonality trends for 28 European and Mediterranean countries.
- To investigate potential environmental influences, specifically atmospheric clarity and quality, on observed birth seasonality shifts.
- To analyze changes in conception patterns over recent decades.
Main Methods:
- Utilized birth data spanning from 1970 to 2011.
- Adjusted raw birth data to represent conception timing.
- Analyzed temporal trends and geographical distribution of peak conception periods.
Main Results:
- A significant concentration of peak conceptions in the final three months of the year was observed in 27 out of 28 countries studied.
- This represents a notable shift and increased clustering of seasonality compared to previous recognized patterns.
- Nine countries exhibited particularly abrupt changes in their birth seasonality.
Conclusions:
- The widespread and synchronized shift in birth seasonality lacks a clear, singular explanation.
- Potential contributing factors include changes in the frequency of sexual intercourse and decadal variations in atmospheric clearness/quality.
- Establishing definitive causal links requires further research, potentially including animal experimentation.
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