Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Econometrics
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Established consensus on procyclical mortality (rising during economic expansions).
• Inconsistencies in previous studies regarding age groups and causes of death.
• Identified trend specification in panel models as a source of inconsistency.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between economic activity fluctuations and mortality.
• To address inconsistencies in prior research by proposing an alternative methodology.
• To provide more precise and consistent findings on age-specific and cause-specific mortality.

Main Methods:

• Critique of standard econometric panel analysis using ordinary least squares.
• Proposal and application of an alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending.
• Analysis of data for 50 US states from 1980 to 2006.

Main Results:

• Procyclical mortality observed across all age groups.
• Clear procyclical mortality linked to respiratory disease and traffic injuries.
• Cardiovascular disease mortality predominantly procyclical; suicide mortality countercyclical, with significant state-level variation.
• No significant macroeconomic association found for cancer or homicide mortality.

Conclusions:

• Nonlinear detrending improves precision and consistency in analyzing economic activity and mortality.
• Confirms procyclical mortality across all age groups and highlights specific causes.
• Reveals significant heterogeneity in the macroeconomic associations of cardiovascular disease and suicide mortality.