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Laboratory Techniques Used to Maintain and Differentiate Biotypes of Vibrio cholerae Clinical and Environmental Isolates
Published on: May 30, 2017
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Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico
Sean M Moore1, Kerry L Shannon2, Carla E Zelaya1
1Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Plos Currents
|March 7, 2014
Summary
Cholera transmission in Mexico is near epidemic levels, with an estimated reproductive number (R) between 0.8 and 1.1. Enhanced surveillance and infrastructure improvements are crucial to prevent widespread cholera outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
- Public Health
Background:
- The 2010 Haiti cholera outbreak continues to impact Hispaniola, with over 40,000 cases in 2013.
- Ongoing regional cholera transmission poses risks to the Americas, especially in areas with inadequate infrastructure.
- Mexico reported nearly 200 cholera cases since September 2013, linked to introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico.
- To assess the potential for sustained cholera epidemics due to continued introductions.
- To inform public health strategies for cholera prevention in Mexico.
Main Methods:
- Utilized publicly available data on cholera cases in Mexico.
- Applied mathematical modeling to estimate the reproductive number (R).
- Analyzed the impact of multiple introductions on transmission dynamics.
Main Results:
- Estimated cholera's reproductive number (R) in Mexico to be between 0.8 and 1.1.
- Confidence intervals for plausible estimates crossed 1, indicating near-epidemic potential.
- Transmission efficiency in some Mexican regions approaches levels required for a large epidemic.
Conclusions:
- Cholera transmission in Mexico is concerningly close to epidemic thresholds.
- Intensive surveillance and infrastructure improvements are essential.
- Proactive planning for rapid response is necessary to avert large-scale cholera epidemics.
Keywords:
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