Can we predict foraging success in a marine predator from dive patterns only? Validation with prey capture attempt...

Area of Science:

• Marine biology
• Animal behavior
• Ecology

Background:

• Assessing marine predator foraging success is crucial for predicting population responses to climate change.
• Dive metrics are often used as proxies for foraging success, but validation is limited.
• Understanding the relationship between dive parameters and foraging success is key.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine if foraging success in Antarctic fur seals can be accurately predicted using only dive parameters.
• To investigate how different temporal scales influence the predictive power of dive metrics.
• To identify specific behavioral variables that best predict foraging success.

Main Methods:

• 11 Antarctic fur seals were instrumented with Hall sensors or accelerometers.
• Dive profiles and mouth-opening events (prey capture attempts) were recorded.
• Statistical models were used to assess the predictive power of dive parameters at various temporal scales.

Main Results:

• Prey capture attempts were best predicted by descent/ascent rates (dive scale), bottom duration/descent rates (30-min to 2-h scales), and ascent rates/maximum depth (all-night scale).
• Model performance improved with increasing temporal scales.
• Predictive models accurately forecasted foraging intensity in new individuals, despite inter-individual variation.

Conclusions:

• Dive metrics can effectively predict foraging success in Antarctic fur seals.
• The relationship between dive parameters and foraging success is scale-dependent, suggesting adaptive foraging strategies.
• The methodology is broadly applicable to other marine predators for assessing foraging behavior.