Cognitive complexity of the medical record is a risk factor for major adverse events

Patients in tertiary care hospitals are more complex than in the past, but the implications of this are poorly understood as "patient complexity" has been difficult to quantify.

We developed a tool, the Complexity Ruler, to quantify the amount of data (as bits) in the patient’s medical record. We designated the amount of data in the medical record as the cognitive complexity of the medical record (CCMR). We hypothesized that CCMR is a useful surrogate for true patient complexity and that higher CCMR correlates with risk of major adverse events.

The Complexity Ruler was validated by comparing the measured CCMR with physician rankings of patient complexity on specific inpatient services. It was tested in a case-control model of all patients with major adverse events at a tertiary care pediatric hospital from 2005 to 2006.

The main outcome measure was an externally reported major adverse event. We measured CCMR for 24 hours before the event, and we estimated lifetime CCMR.

Above empirically derived cutoffs, 24-hour and lifetime CCMR were risk factors for major adverse events (odds ratios, 5.3 and 6.5, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, CCMR alone was essentially as predictive of risk as a model that started with 30-plus clinical factors.

CCMR correlates with physician assessment of complexity and risk of adverse events. We hypothesize that increased CCMR increases the risk of physician cognitive overload. An automated version of the Complexity Ruler could allow identification of at-risk patients in real time.