Multipolar electrostatics based on the Kriging machine learning method: an application to serine

A multipolar, polarizable electrostatic method for future use in a novel force field is described. Quantum Chemical Topology (QCT) is used to partition the electron density of a chemical system into atoms, then the machine learning method Kriging is used to build models that relate the multipole moments of the atoms to the positions of their surrounding nuclei. The pilot system serine is used to study both the influence of the level of theory and the set of data generator methods used. The latter consists of: (i) sampling of protein structures deposited in the Protein Data Bank (PDB), or (ii) normal mode distortion along either (a) Cartesian coordinates, or (b) redundant internal coordinates. Wavefunctions for the sampled geometries were obtained at the HF/6-31G(d,p), B3LYP/apc-1, and MP2/cc-pVDZ levels of theory, prior to calculation of the atomic multipole moments by volume integration. The average absolute error (over an independent test set of conformations) in the total atom-atom electrostatic interaction energy of serine, using Kriging models built with the three data generator methods is 11.3 kJ mol⁻¹ (PDB), 8.2 kJ mol⁻¹ (Cartesian distortion), and 10.1 kJ mol⁻¹ (redundant internal distortion) at the HF/6-31G(d,p) level. At the B3LYP/apc-1 level, the respective errors are 7.7 kJ mol⁻¹, 6.7 kJ mol⁻¹, and 4.9 kJ mol⁻¹, while at the MP2/cc-pVDZ level they are 6.5 kJ mol⁻¹, 5.3 kJ mol⁻¹, and 4.0 kJ mol⁻¹. The ranges of geometries generated by the redundant internal coordinate distortion and by extraction from the PDB are much wider than the range generated by Cartesian distortion. The atomic multipole moment and electrostatic interaction energy predictions for the B3LYP/apc-1 and MP2/cc-pVDZ levels are similar, and both are better than the corresponding predictions at the HF/6-31G(d,p) level.