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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Enhancing species distribution modeling by characterizing predator-prey interactions.

Anne M Trainor, Oswald J Schmitz, Jacob S Ivan

    Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
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    Integrating predator-prey interactions into species distribution models (SDMs) improves accuracy. Trophic interaction distribution models (TIDMs) capture crucial spatial dynamics missed by traditional SDMs, enhancing ecological range predictions.

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    Area of Science:

    • Ecology
    • Biogeography
    • Conservation Biology

    Background:

    • Species distribution models (SDMs) commonly use environmental variables and species locations to map geographic ranges.
    • However, SDMs often overlook critical biotic interactions, such as predator-prey relationships, which influence species distributions.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To introduce a novel Trophic Interaction Distribution Model (TIDM) that integrates spatially explicit predator-prey dynamics.
    • To compare the performance of TIDMs with traditional SDMs in predicting species distributions.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a TIDM using Canada lynx and snowshoe hare encounter data from telemetry and snow-tracking, alongside environmental variables.
    • Constructed a traditional SDM using only Canada lynx location data and environmental variables.
    • Analyzed and compared the spatial extents and environmental conditions identified by both models.

    Main Results:

    • Both SDM and TIDM identified habitat use patterns, including a transient phase and a steady state.
    • The spatial extents of the SDM and TIDM differed significantly.
    • Approximately 40% of crucial lynx-snowshoe hare interaction locations identified by the TIDM were missed by the lynx-only SDM.

    Conclusions:

    • Trophic interaction distribution models (TIDMs) provide a more comprehensive understanding of species distributions than traditional SDMs.
    • Quantifying spatial trophic interactions and their environmental correlates is essential for accurate ecological modeling and conservation planning.
    • Future efforts should focus on incorporating interspecies dependencies into species distribution modeling.