Explaining variations in state foster care maintenance rates and the implications for implementing new evidence-based...

Area of Science:

• Child Welfare Policy
• Social Work Research
• Public Finance

Background:

• U.S. Child Welfare systems serve millions of children, with annual spending over $26 billion.
• Out-of-home foster care maintenance rates are a significant expense, but reasons for state-level variation are unclear.
• Understanding drivers of maintenance rate variation is crucial for disseminating evidence-based practices.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze factors influencing state foster care maintenance rates from 1990-2008.
• To examine the relationship between maintenance rates and socioeconomic, demographic, political, and federal funding variables.
• To explore the correlation between maintenance rates and child welfare outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Assembled a longitudinal, state-level panel dataset (1990-2008) for all 50 states.
• Included data on foster care maintenance rates, child population, poverty, employment, demographics, political control, federal funding, and lawsuits.
• Employed longitudinal panel regressions with state and year fixed effects, lagging predictors by one year.

Main Results:

• Real foster care maintenance rates declined in many states between 1991 and 2008.
• Increased state unemployment and Republican control of government were associated with marginal declines in maintenance rates.
• Higher federal TANF share correlated with increased maintenance rates, but over 50% of variation was due to unobserved state factors.

Conclusions:

• Foster care maintenance rates have declined in real terms in many states, unaffected by economic or political shifts.
• State variation in maintenance rates is largely unexplained by measured factors and shows no strong correlation with child welfare outcomes.
• Idiosyncratic state-level factors significantly influence maintenance rates, impacting evidence-based service dissemination.