Estimating climate resilience for conservation across geophysical settings

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Conserving biological diversity requires methods that accommodate species and community shifts due to climate change.
• Existing conservation strategies may not adequately address climate-driven ecological rearrangements.
• Developing resilient conservation sites is crucial for long-term biodiversity maintenance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and test a method for identifying resilient conservation sites in northeastern North America.
• To integrate physical features related to ecological diversity and climate resilience into conservation planning.
• To compare the effectiveness of the developed method with existing conservation site selections.

Main Methods:

• Mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation across northeastern North America.
• Identified resilient sites within each setting by scoring connectivity via natural cover and microclimate indicators (topography, elevation gradients).
• Selected sites scoring above 0.5 standard deviations from the mean combined score for resilience and connectivity.

Main Results:

• The developed method identified sites that captured significantly more biodiversity than expected by chance (p < 0.0001).
• Selected sites included 75% of target species, 49% of target species locations, and 53% of target community locations.
• Settings with calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt showed lower resilience and protection.

Conclusions:

• The method effectively identifies natural strongholds for future conservation under climate change.
• This approach captures substantial existing biodiversity and addresses biases in current land protection.
• It provides a framework for proactive conservation planning that accounts for ecological adaptation.