Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation

Area of Science:

• Marine biology
• Climate change ecology
• Conservation science

Background:

• Global climate change is altering marine species' thermal niches and geographic distributions.
• Predictive modeling is crucial for understanding species' responses to climate change, especially where dispersal is limited.
• Accurate models are essential for effective conservation and management of marine ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic.
• To assess the accuracy of bio-climatic envelope models in predicting species distribution shifts.
• To inform conservation and management strategies for marine mammals under future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Applied a bio-climatic envelope modeling technique to ten cetacean species.
• Integrated species' habitat and thermal niche data.
• Utilized hindcasting of historical distribution changes to verify model accuracy.

Main Results:

• Models successfully explained current spatial distributions for nine of ten species.
• Only four species-specific models accurately predicted distribution changes over time in response to temperature shifts.
• Future climate scenarios predict range expansion for one species and contraction for three, with potential 80% habitat loss for white-beaked dolphins.

Conclusions:

• Validated predictive distribution models are vital for accurate climate change impact assessments on marine species.
• Model predictions identify vulnerable areas and timelines for climate change impacts on cetaceans.
• This research supports the development of robust conservation and management strategies for marine mammals facing climate change.