Economic cycles and heart disease in Mexico

While a considerable literature has emerged regarding the relationship between the business cycles and mortality rates, relatively little is known regarding how economic fluctuations are related to morbidity. We investigate the relationship between business cycles and heart disease in Mexico using a unique state-level dataset of 512 observations consisting of real GDP and heart disease incidence rates (overall and by age group) from 1995 to 2010. Our study is one of the first to use a state-level panel approach to analyze the relationship between the business cycle and morbidity. Further, the state and year fixed effects employed in our econometric specification reduce possible omitted variable bias. We find a general procyclical, although largely statistically insignificant, contemporaneous relationship. However, an increase in GDP per capita sustained over five years is associated with considerable increases in the incidence rates of ischemic heart disease and hypertension. This procyclical relationship appears strongest in the states with the lowest levels of development and for the oldest age groups. Our results suggest that economic fluctuations may have important lagged effects on heart disease in developing countries.