[A trend scenario and four perspectives for 2040: the Dutch Public Health Status and Forecast 2014]

In the Dutch Public Health Status and Forecast report (PHSF), the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment explores the future of public health and health care in the Netherlands until 2040. The PHSF-2014 will consist of four parts: (a) a description of public health in the Netherlands now and in the past; (b) future trends, based on model calculations and expert opinions; (c) future scenarios based on four normative perspectives on public health; and (d) opportunities and dilemmas in the prevention of future problems. In this first article of a short series on the PHSF-2014, we briefly explain these four parts of the study. In the next article, we will describe the most important future trends until 2030. In the final article, we will summarize the conclusions of the PHSF-2014.