Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery

Area of Science:

• * Volcanology
• * Geodesy
• * Remote Sensing

Background:

• * Limited ground-based monitoring hinders effective volcanological hazard management.
• * Satellite imagery offers a global, multidecadal dataset for analyzing volcanic activity.
• * Deformation is a key precursor to volcanic eruptions.

Purpose of the Study:

• * To assess the relationship between volcanic deformation and eruption occurrence using satellite data.
• * To establish the evidential worth of deformation as an indicator of eruption potential.
• * To investigate factors influencing the eruption-deformation relationship.

Main Methods:

• * Systematic observation of 198 volcanoes over 18 years using satellite imagery.
• * Analysis of deformation data and eruption records.
• * Examination of tectonic, petrological, and volcanic factors across 540 volcanoes over 3 years.

Main Results:

• * 54 out of 198 observed volcanoes deformed; 25 of these erupted (46%).
• * Non-deforming volcanoes showed a 94% probability of not erupting.
• * Deformation and non-deformation provide strong indicators for eruption potential.
• * The eruption-deformation relationship is influenced by tectonic, petrological, and volcanic factors.

Conclusions:

• * Satellite-derived deformation is a powerful tool for probabilistic eruption forecasting.
• * Enhanced satellite monitoring capabilities will improve global volcanic hazard assessment.
• * Probabilistic approaches informed by satellite data will be crucial for future hazard decisions and strategic development.