Modelling favourability for invasive species encroachment to identify areas of native species vulnerability

We assessed the vulnerability of the native Mediterranean pond turtle to encroachment by the invasive red-eared slider in southern Spain. We first obtained an ecogeographical favourability model for the Mediterranean pond turtle. We then modelled the presence/absence of the red-eared slider in the Mediterranean pond turtle range and obtained an encroachment favourability model. We also obtained a favourability model for the red-eared slider using the ecogeographical favourability for the Mediterranean pond turtle as a predictor. When favourability for the Mediterranean pond turtle was high, favourability for the red-eared slider was low, suggesting that in these areas the Mediterranean pond turtle may resist encroachment by the red-eared slider. We also calculated favourability overlap between the two species, which is their simultaneous favourability. Grids with low overlap had higher favourability values for the Mediterranean pond turtle and, consequently, were of lesser conservation concern. A few grids had high values for both species, being potentially suitable for coexistence. Grids with intermediate overlap had similar intermediate favourability values for both species and were therefore areas where the Mediterranean pond turtle was more vulnerable to encroachment by the red-eared slider. We mapped the favourability overlap to provide a map of vulnerability of the Mediterranean pond turtle to encroachment by the red-eared slider.