Predictive models for identification of hospitalized patients harboring KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae

The production of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemases (KPCs) by Enterobacteriaceae has become a significant problem in recent years. To identify factors that could predict isolation of KPC-producing K. pneumoniae (KPCKP) in clinical samples from hospitalized patients, we conducted a retrospective, matched (1:2) case-control study in five large Italian hospitals. The case cohort consisted of adult inpatients whose hospital stay included at least one documented isolation of a KPCKP strain from a clinical specimen. For each case enrolled, we randomly selected two matched controls with no KPCKP-positive cultures of any type during their hospitalization. Matching involved hospital, ward, and month/year of admission, as well as time at risk for KPCKP isolation. A subgroup analysis was also carried out to identify risk factors specifically associated with true KPCKP infection. During the study period, KPCKP was isolated from clinical samples of 657 patients; 426 of these cases appeared to be true infections. Independent predictors of KPCKP isolation were recent admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), indwelling urinary catheter, central venous catheter (CVC), and/or surgical drain, ≥ 2 recent hospitalizations, hematological cancer, and recent fluoroquinolone and/or carbapenem therapy. A Charlson index of ≥ 3, indwelling CVC, recent surgery, neutropenia, ≥ 2 recent hospitalizations, and recent fluoroquinolone and/or carbapenem therapy were independent risk factors for KPCKP infection. Models developed to predict KPCKP isolation and KPCKP infection displayed good predictive power, with the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.84) and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80 to 0.85), respectively. This study provides novel information which might be useful for the clinical management of patients harboring KPCKP and for controlling the spread of this organism.