Spatial-temporal Variations of Bovine Tuberculosis Incidence in France between 1965 and 2000

Area of Science:

• Veterinary epidemiology
• Animal health surveillance
• Spatial statistics

Background:

• Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) poses a significant threat to cattle populations and public health.
• Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of bTB is crucial for effective control strategies.
• France has implemented various measures to control bTB incidence over several decades.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the spatiotemporal variations in bTB incidence in France from 1965 to 2000.
• To investigate the association between bTB incidence and changes in cattle population structure and herd management.
• To identify key factors influencing bTB risk at the departmental level.

Main Methods:

• Bayesian space-time modeling was employed to analyze bTB incidence data.
• Hierarchical Bayesian models were compared using the deviance information criterion (DIC) for model selection.
• Data on cattle population structure and herd management practices were incorporated into the models.

Main Results:

• Southern France consistently showed higher bTB incidence, while central and western regions remained low-risk areas.
• Increased bTB risk was associated with higher average herd density and size.
• A greater percentage of dairy cows and larger areas of permanent grassland were also linked to elevated bTB risk.
• These factors reflect the professionalization and intensification of cattle farming.

Conclusions:

• Changes in cattle farming, including professionalization and intensification, likely contributed to the reduction of bTB risk in France.
• Herd density, herd size, dairy cow proportion, and grassland area are significant risk factors for bTB.
• Spatial and temporal analyses are essential for understanding and managing endemic diseases like bTB.