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Evaluating and Quantifying the Specific Deterrent Effects of DNA Databases.

Avinash Bhati1, Caterina G Roman2

  • 1Maxarth, LLC, Gaithersburg, MD, USA.

Evaluation Review
|April 23, 2014
PubMed
Summary

DNA databases show small deterrent effects but significantly increase probative value, aiding criminal investigations. This study quantifies these effects using innovative statistical models on offender data.

Keywords:
CODISdeterrenceforensicprobative effectsrecidivism

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Criminology
  • Statistics

Background:

  • Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) evidence is widely accepted for crime scene identification.
  • The public safety benefits and specific deterrence and probative effects (PREs) of DNA databases remain largely unquantified.
  • Research on DNA database efficacy faces challenges in randomly assigning offenders for causal inference.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply an alternate strategy for estimating the specific deterrence and probative effects of DNA databases.
  • To quantify the impact of DNA databases on offender reoffending patterns.
  • To address the limitations of traditional research designs in evaluating DNA database effectiveness.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of reoffending patterns in a large cohort of Florida offenders (1996-2004).
  • Development of an identification strategy using multiple clock models to disentangle simultaneous effects.
  • Application of a semiparametric approach for model estimation.

Main Results:

  • Deterrent effects were small (2-3% reduction in recidivism risk) and found only for robbery and burglary.
  • Significant probative effects (PREs) were observed, showing a 20-30% increase in recidivism risk for most offense categories.
  • The models provided insights into the dual impact of DNA databases on criminal behavior and investigation.

Conclusions:

  • Innovative semiparametric models can effectively elucidate the probative and deterrent effects of DNA databases.
  • DNA databases have a substantial probative value, increasing the likelihood of identifying offenders.
  • While direct deterrence is limited, the investigative power of DNA databases is significant.