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Terrorist attacks escalate in frequency and fatalities preceding highly lethal attacks.

Andy Martens¹, Raazesh Sainudiin¹, Chris G Sibley²

¹University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.

|April 24, 2014

Summary

Highly lethal terrorist attacks, though rare, cause half of all fatalities. This study found escalating attack frequency and lethality precede these major events, offering insights into predicting severe terrorist incidents.

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Area of Science:

Terrorism Studies
Criminology
Political Science

Background:

Highly lethal terrorist attacks (≥21 fatalities) represent a small fraction (3.5%) of all attacks but cause 50% of total deaths.
Understanding patterns preceding severe attacks is crucial for mitigating their impact.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate if terrorist group activity escalates in frequency and lethality before highly lethal attacks.
To identify predictive patterns for severe terrorist incidents.

Main Methods:

Analysis of a comprehensive international terrorism database (The Global Terrorism Database).
Examination of attack frequency and number of fatalities per attack preceding highly lethal events.
Comparison of escalation patterns between groups that commit highly lethal attacks and those that do not.

Main Results:

Evidence of escalating attack frequency leading up to highly lethal attacks.
Evidence of escalating lethality (fatalities per attack) preceding highly lethal attacks.
Escalation patterns were specific to groups that ultimately commit highly lethal attacks.

Conclusions:

Terrorist groups exhibiting escalation in attack frequency and lethality are more likely to conduct highly lethal attacks.
These findings can inform threat assessment and counter-terrorism strategies by identifying precursor behaviors.
The study highlights the importance of monitoring group activity for early warning signs of severe attacks.