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Sequential sampling for panicle caterpillars (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in sorghum.

N C Elliott, M J Brewer, K L Giles

    Journal of Economic Entomology
    |April 30, 2014
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    Summary

    A new sequential sampling plan for sorghum panicle caterpillars, including corn earworm and fall armyworm, significantly reduces sampling effort. This method improves pest management efficiency in the Great Plains.

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    Area of Science:

    • Agricultural Entomology
    • Pest Management
    • Statistical Ecology

    Background:

    • Panicle caterpillars (corn earworm and fall armyworm) are significant pests of sorghum in the Great Plains.
    • Current fixed-size sampling methods (30 beat bucket samples) are labor-intensive and may not be optimal.
    • Understanding pest distribution is crucial for developing efficient sampling strategies.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and validate a sequential sampling plan for panicle caterpillars in sorghum.
    • To improve the efficiency of pest monitoring compared to traditional fixed-sample size methods.
    • To establish economic and safe thresholds for pest management decisions.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized Wald's sequential probability ratio test for a negative binomial distribution.
    • Sampled 115 sorghum fields across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas (June-August 2010).
    • Developed a plan with high (0.5 caterpillars/panicle) and low (0.20 caterpillars/panicle) thresholds and fixed error rates (α=0.10, β=0.05).

    Main Results:

    • Panicle caterpillar counts exhibited an aggregated distribution.
    • The sequential plan required fewer samples than the fixed 30-sample method when densities were high or low.
    • Validation in 2013 showed strong agreement (r²=0.93) between expected and actual samples, with correct field classifications.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed sequential sampling plan is more efficient than current fixed-size methods for sorghum panicle caterpillars.
    • This plan optimizes sampling effort, reducing labor when pest densities are far from thresholds.
    • Accurate pest monitoring through sequential sampling supports timely and effective integrated pest management strategies.