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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 30, 2026

Extinction Training During the Reconsolidation Window Prevents Recovery of Fear

Extinction Training During the Reconsolidation Window Prevents Recovery of Fear

Published on: August 24, 2012

On uncertain sightings and inference about extinction.

Andrew R Solow¹, Andrew R Beet

¹Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, U.S.A.. asolow@whoi.edu.

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology

|May 1, 2014

Summary

Determining species extinction relies on sighting records. New models analyzing Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) sightings suggest extinction depends on whether sightings arise from independent or the same processes.

Keywords:

Bayes factor Campephilus principalis Ivory-billed Woodpecker extinción extinction factor Bayes registro de avistamientos sighting record

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Conservation Biology
Statistical Modeling

Background:

Species extinction is often inferred from sighting records.
Previous Bayesian approaches to extinction inference have limitations.
The Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) extinction is a case study for sighting record analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

To extend previous Bayesian inference methods for species extinction.
To investigate the impact of temporal overlap between certain and uncertain sightings.
To compare two statistical models for sighting records in extinction inference.

Main Methods:

Developed a Bayesian approach allowing temporal overlap between certain and uncertain sightings.
Proposed and analyzed two statistical models: one with independent sighting processes, another with a shared process.
Applied both models to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker sighting data.

Main Results:

One model, assuming independent sighting processes, indicated extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker.
The other model, assuming a shared sighting process, did not favor extinction.
Results highlight the sensitivity of extinction inference to the underlying assumptions about sighting data.

Conclusions:

The interpretation of sighting records for extinction inference is crucial.
Understanding the 'natural history' of sighting data is vital for accurate extinction assessments.
Further research is needed to refine models for species extinction based on observational data.