Risk factors for postpartum problems in dairy cows: explanatory and predictive modeling

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Medicine
• Dairy Science
• Animal Health

Background:

• Postpartum dairy cattle face high disease incidence and herd removal risks.
• Postpartum diseases share risk factors, potentially triggering a cascade of health issues.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop explanatory and predictive models for treatment or removal from the herd within 30 days in milk (TXR30).
• To identify key risk factors for TXR30 in multiparous and primiparous dairy cows.

Main Methods:

• A cohort study involving 765 multiparous and 544 primiparous Holstein cows from four commercial dairy herds.
• Data collected pre-calving or within 24 hours of calving were used to build predictive models.
• Models were developed separately for multiparous and primiparous cows due to differences in available historical data.

Main Results:

• For multiparous cows, increased lactation number, poor locomotion score, calving abnormalities, and longer previous lactation length increased TXR30 risk. Higher previous milk yield decreased this risk.
• For primiparous cows, calving abnormalities were the sole significant predictor for TXR30.
• Predictive models achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.70 for multiparous cows (60% sensitivity) and 0.66 for primiparous cows (35% sensitivity).

Conclusions:

• Key risk factors for postpartum treatment or removal were identified for both cow groups.
• Developed equations can predict TXR30, enabling dairy producers to better understand and manage postpartum health challenges.
• Early identification of risk factors can improve dairy herd management and reduce economic losses.