Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Ecology

Background:

• Global communities face increasing natural hazards, including floods, droughts, wildfires, and storm surges.
• The drivers behind these escalating natural hazards are often incompletely understood, with climate change and human exposure patterns frequently cited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively assess the impact of both climate change and land cover alterations on a range of natural hazards.
• To investigate the specific effects of land use practices on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Main Methods:

• Utilized scenario-based modeling to analyze changes in four key natural hazards: floods, droughts, wildfires, and storm surges.
• Incorporated land cover changes and climate change projections as primary input drivers for the models.

Main Results:

• Human-induced land cover changes demonstrably increase the likelihood and severity of natural hazards.
• Invasive alien tree proliferation was found to reduce dry-period river flows by 50% and double wildfire intensity.
• Altered plantation forestry practices shifted a 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period under extreme scenarios.
• Coastal hardening, primarily through foredune removal and development, escalated severe storm surges from a 1:100 year event to an annual occurrence.

Conclusions:

• Implementing appropriate land use management strategies, such as invasive species control, reforestation, and coastal dune restoration, can significantly mitigate the impacts of natural hazards.
• Intact and well-managed landscapes play a crucial role in diminishing the probability and severity of extreme climate-related events.