[Demography of physicians in Portugal: prospective analysis]

The study modelled the physicians predictable allocation by medical specialty, in the horizon of 2025. It was based on the physicians demographics in Portugal and through the development of different future scenarios.

In the study was developed a Supply Model, which represents the capacity of medical training installed in Portugal, and a Necessity Model that perspective possible futures for the provision of medical professionals.

Each model comprehends several scenarios, according to different context variables (introduction or not of limits to postgraduate training capacity, demographic trends, ratios recommended by Colleges Specialty ...).

The models comparison lead to the conclusion that the training system has the capacity to meet the needs of physicians in all scenarios developed, and it even generates a surplus of medical professionals that may not be absorbed by the healthcare system, in the horizon of 2025.