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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 29, 2026

Oral Bacterial Infection and Shedding in Drosophila melanogaster

Oral Bacterial Infection and Shedding in Drosophila melanogaster

Published on: May 31, 2018

Outbreak statistics and scaling laws for externally driven epidemics.

Sarabjeet Singh¹, Christopher R Myers²

¹Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA.

Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

|May 16, 2014

Summary

This study reveals that a driven susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model exhibits unique outbreak scaling laws with tunable exponents, differing from the classic SIR model. External forcing fundamentally alters epidemic dynamics and size distributions.

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Area of Science:

Epidemiology
Statistical Physics
Complex Systems

Background:

Power-law scalings characterize continuous phase transitions in physical systems.
The classic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model demonstrates specific scaling laws for outbreak sizes (P(n)∼n-3/2) at critical points.

Purpose of the Study:

Investigate scaling laws in an SIR model with constant external forcing (reservoir forcing).
Analyze how this external forcing modifies epidemic outbreak statistics and scaling behavior.

Main Methods:

Developed a modified SIR model incorporating a constant force of infection per susceptible.
Analyzed the scaling laws of outbreak sizes and durations under varying external forcing rates.

Main Results:

The driven SIR model shows tunable exponents in scaling laws, dependent on external forcing rate.
Outbreak size distributions and scaling laws fundamentally differ from the classic SIR model.
A richer spectrum of outbreak sizes, scaling as O(Nξ) and O((N/lnN)2/3), is observed.

Conclusions:

External forcing introduces significant deviations from standard SIR epidemic dynamics.
The driven SIR model offers a more complex framework for understanding epidemic spread with external influences.
Tunable exponents and diverse scaling behaviors highlight the impact of continuous driving forces on epidemic systems.