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Network risk and forecasting power in phase-flipping dynamical networks.
B Podobnik1, A Majdandzic2, C Curme2
1Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA and Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Rijeka, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia and Zagreb School of Economics and Management, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia and Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia.
This study models network failures and recovery, revealing how random recovery processes impact network stability and risk. We developed methods to quantify network risk, applicable to economic and traffic systems.
Area of Science:
- Network Science
- Complex Systems
- Dynamical Systems
Background:
- Real-world networks exhibit volatile behavior due to node and link failures.
- Understanding network resilience under dynamic conditions is crucial for various applications.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model phase-flipping dynamics in scale-free networks with stochastic node and link failures.
- To investigate the impact of recovery process stochasticity on network stability.
- To develop risk estimators for network resilience.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network model.
- Stochastic investigation of recovery parameters.
- Derivation of higher moments for active node and link fractions (fn(t), fℓ(t)).
- Definition of network risk estimators.
- Analysis of hysteresis in node fraction correlations.
Main Results:
- Quantified the probability of limited node and link failures (q%).
- Derived higher moments of active fractions, fn(t) and fℓ(t).
- Identified hysteresis in fn(t) correlations due to node failures.
- Derived conditional probabilities for phase-flipping events.
- Demonstrated applicability to economic and traffic networks.
Conclusions:
- The model provides insights into network resilience and risk under dynamic failure and recovery processes.
- Stochasticity in recovery significantly influences phase-flipping dynamics.
- The developed estimators offer a quantitative measure of network risk.
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