Estimation of the Long-term Cardiovascular Events Using UKPDS Risk Engine in Metabolic Syndrome Patients.

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Endocrinology
• Public Health

Background:

• Metabolic syndrome poses a major mortality and morbidity risk in India.
• Forecasted cardiovascular risk estimates for Indian metabolic syndrome patients are limited in existing literature.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate 10-year cardiovascular event risks in a representative Indian metabolic syndrome population.
• To utilize the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine for forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Data from 567 metabolic syndrome patients in Western India were collected via interviews and physician records.
• Patient data were analyzed using the UKPDS risk engine, applying National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria.
• A 10-year projection was simulated to determine cardiovascular complication risks.

Main Results:

• The projected 10-year absolute risks were: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) 3.79%, Fatal CHD 9.6%, Stroke 7.91%, Fatal Stroke 3.57%.
• Relative risks were significantly elevated: CHD 17.8, Fatal CHD 7, Stroke 5.9, Fatal Stroke 4.7.
• Simulated projections indicate serious, life-threatening cardiovascular consequences for this cohort.

Conclusions:

• Metabolic syndrome patients in Western India exhibit substantial projected risks for major cardiovascular events over 10 years.
• These findings underscore the critical need for early detection and intervention strategies for metabolic syndrome in India.
• Further research should focus on preventative measures and risk reduction tailored to this population.