Xylem formation can be modeled statistically as a function of primary growth and cambium activity

Primary (budburst, foliage and shoot) growth and secondary (cambium and xylem) growth of plants play a vital role in sequestering atmospheric carbon. However, their potential relationships have never been mathematically quantified and the underlying physiological mechanisms are unclear. We monitored primary and secondary growth in Picea mariana and Abies balsamea on a weekly basis from 2010 to 2013 at four sites over an altitudinal gradient (25-900 m) in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. We determined the timings of onset and termination through the fitted functions and their first derivative. We quantified the potential relationships between primary growth and secondary growth using the mixed-effects model. We found that xylem formation of boreal conifers can be modeled as a function of cambium activity, bud phenology, and shoot and needle growth, as well as species- and site-specific factors. Our model reveals that there may be an optimal mechanism to simultaneously allocate the photosynthetic products and stored nonstructural carbon to growth of different organs at different times in the growing season. This mathematical link can bridge phenological modeling, forest ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle modeling, which will certainly contribute to an improved prediction of ecosystem productivity and carbon equilibrium.