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Updated: Apr 28, 2026

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Association between race and age in survival after trauma
Caitlin W Hicks1, Zain G Hashmi1, Catherine Velopulos1
1Center for Surgical Trials and Outcomes Research, Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Importance:
Racial disparities in survival after trauma are well described for patients younger than 65 years. Similar information among older patients is lacking because existing trauma databases do not include important patient comorbidity information.
Objective:
To determine whether racial disparities in trauma survival persist in patients 65 years or older.
Design, Setting, And Participants:
Trauma patients were identified from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (January 1, 2003, through December 30, 2010) using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes. Injury severity was ascertained by applying the Trauma Mortality Prediction Model, and patient comorbidities were quantified using the Charlson Comorbidity Index.
Main Outcomes And Measures:
In-hospital mortality after trauma for blacks vs whites for younger (16-64 years of age) and older (≥65 years of age) patients was compared using 3 different statistical methods: univariable logistic regression, multivariable logistic regression with and without clustering for hospital effects, and coarsened exact matching. Model covariates included age, sex, insurance status, type and intent of injury, injury severity, head injury severity, and Charlson Comorbidity Index.
Results:
A total of 1,073,195 patients were included (502,167 patients 16-64 years of age and 571,028 patients ≥65 years of age). Most older patients were white (547,325 [95.8%]), female (406 158 [71.1%]), and insured (567,361 [99.4%]) and had Charlson Comorbidity Index scores of 1 or higher (323,741 [56.7%]). The unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) for death in blacks vs whites were 1.35 (95% CI, 1.28-1.42) for patients 16 to 64 years of age and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.93-1.08) for patients 65 years or older. After risk adjustment, racial disparities in survival persisted in the younger black group (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.30) but were reversed in the older group (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.90). This finding was consistent across all 3 statistical methods.
Conclusions And Relevance:
Different racial disparities in survival after trauma exist between white and black patients depending on their age group. Although younger white patients have better outcomes after trauma than younger black patients, older black patients have better outcomes than older white patients. Exploration of this paradoxical finding may lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms that cause disparities in trauma outcomes.
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