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Updated: Apr 28, 2026

Author Spotlight: Leaf Trait Analysis for Climate and Ecology Reconstruction in Modern and Ancient Plant Communities
Published on: October 25, 2024
Fine-grain modeling of species' response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia
Lee Hannah1, Lorraine Flint2, Alexandra D Syphard3
1Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA.
Abstract:
Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions. Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts. Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate. Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.
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