Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Plant Physiology

Background:

• Global food demand is projected to increase by 70% by 2050, necessitating higher cereal yields.
• Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is a staple crop facing challenges from climate change, including increased heat and drought stress.
• Current wheat adaptations to hotter, drier summers in Europe involve quicker maturation, which reduces yield potential.

Approach:

• Utilized Sirius, a process-based wheat model, to simulate yield potential for optimized wheat ideotypes.
• Assessed ideotype performance under projected future climatic conditions across ten European wheat-growing regions.
• Conducted controlled environment experiments to quantify heat and drought impacts on grain number and size at critical growth stages (booting and flowering).

Key Points:

• Model predictions indicate reduced detrimental effects of drought stress due to phenological adjustments and genetic improvements in water-use efficiency.
• Extending wheat maturation period offers potential yield advances through enhanced resource capture and partitioning.
• Increased frequency of heat stress during meiosis and anthesis is predicted under future climate scenarios.

Conclusions:

• Genetic improvement prioritizing heat and drought tolerance is crucial for increasing wheat yield potential.
• Optimizing phenology and physiological responses to water scarcity can mitigate yield losses from drought.
• Balancing adaptation strategies is necessary to overcome climate change impacts on wheat production.