Analysis of trend of malaria prevalence in south-west Ethiopia: a retrospective comparative study

The temporal analysis of pertinent malaria data on the health care system is crucially important to measure success or failure of malaria programmes and identify remaining malaria hot spots. The objectives of this study were to analyse and compare trends of malaria prevalence around Gilgel-Gibe Hydroelectric Dam (GGHD), and a control site over an eight-year period.

A retrospective record review of health care services was conducted in southwest Ethiopia. Records of malaria cases over an eight-year period in primary health care units of two localities were reviewed. One study site was selected from villages around a man-made lake, GGHD, within a distance of 10 km, and a control site with similar geographic features was identified. Data were summarized in tables; prevalence of malaria was analysed and described by person, place and time using line graphs. Odds ratio was used to examine significant difference of malaria occurrence in the two sites.

Records of 163,918 malaria cases registered over eight years (September 2003 to August 2011) were explored. Close to one thirds (32.7%) of these cases were from GGHD site and two-thirds (67.3%) of them were from the control site. Among the confirmed cases, Plasmodium falciparum constituted 54.6%, Plasmodium vivax accounted for 41.6%, and mixed infection was 3.8%. There were three peaks of malaria prevalence in the control site whereas only one major peak was identified during the eight-year period in GGHD site; and prevalence of malaria in GGHD site was lower than control site. Children in the age range ten to 14 years were the most affected by the disease, followed by children below the age group five to nine years, which demands due consideration in the effort of malaria control.

More malaria prevalence was observed in the control site compared to GGHD site almost throughout the time period considered. The present finding did not show evidence of the excess malaria burden in the GGHD site due to the presence of the dam.