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Published on: April 7, 2023
Influence of interpregnancy interval on birth timing
E A DeFranco1, S Ehrlich, L J Muglia
1Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA; Division of Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Objective:
To assess the influence of inadequate birth spacing on birth timing distribution across gestation.
Design:
Population-based retrospective cohort study using vital statistics birth records.
Setting:
Ohio, USA.
Study Population:
Singleton, non-anomalous live births ≥20 weeks to multiparous mothers, 2006-2011.
Methods:
Birth frequency at each gestational week was compared following short IPIs of <6, 6-12 and 12-18 months versus referent group, normal IPI≥18 months.
Main Outcome Measures:
Frequency of birth at each gestational week; preterm <37 weeks; <39 and ≥40 weeks.
Results:
Of 454,716 births, 87% followed a normal IPI≥18 months, 10.7% had IPI 12-18 months and 2.2% with IPI<12 months. The risk of delivery<39 weeks was higher following short IPI<12 months, adj OR (odds ratio) 2.78 (95% CI 2.64, 2.93). 53.3% of women delivered before the 39th week after IPI<12 months compared with 37.5% of women with normal IPI, P<0.001. Likewise, birth at ≥40 weeks was decreased (16.9%) following short IPI<12 months compared to normal IPI, 23.2%, adj OR 0.67 (95% CI 0.64, 0.71). This resulted in a shift of the frequency distribution curve of birth by week of gestation to the left for pregnancies following a short IPI<12 months and 12-18 months compared to, birth spacing≥18 months.
Conclusions:
While short IPI is a known risk factor for preterm birth, our data show that inadequate birth spacing is associated with decreased gestational age for all births. Pregnancies following short IPIs have a higher frequency of birth at all weeks of gestation prior to 39 and fewer births≥40 weeks, resulting in overall shortened pregnancy duration.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.

