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Updated: Aug 13, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Dynamic behavioural models and contraceptive choice
1Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook.
Abstract:
Dynamic models of contraceptive use fill a theoretical gap. They bring behavioural content to the mathematically elegant Markov models of family building. They meet the criterion that Bulatao (1989) advances that method use, discontinuation and switching be considered not in isolation, but with reference to individual reproductive goals. Dynamic models help to link the literature on method choice with the literature on method effectiveness. These theoretical advantages are, at present, counter-balanced by empirical limitations. This article explores the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of dynamic contraceptive choice models.
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